Ecoblogi – A Blog by Daniel Elkama

When a problem is simple, it has few components and its interactions are linear. In this case, it is easy to find a solution to the problem. However, environmental and sustainability issues are very rarely simple and linear. The socio-ecological system is very complex, it has numerous variables and interactions. For example, nature loss and climate change are affected by a huge number of different factors, and simple measures cannot be proposed as a solution, as, for example, populist politicians do. Natural ecosystems and also society are very complex, full of various relationships and interactions: in nature and society, nothing is isolated and everything affects everything at least in some way. Therefore, understanding their operation and solving problems requires systems thinking.

There are two types of complexity: ontological and epistemological complexity. Ontological means many sub-units dependencies and variables and the dynamic interactions between them. Epistemological means that understanding the system is difficult or even impossible. Epistemological complexity can be a really bad thing in managing sustainability issues. Then the uncertainty is so strong that we cannot understand the system and its operation properly, and we cannot find a solution to the problems. Especially when the system is impossible to understand, we are completely blind. For example, predicting the weather is sometimes very difficult, and predicting it a week from now is almost completely impossible. The good news is that most complex systems can be understood through careful research. When we know the laws of society and nature thoroughly, we can solve very complex problems.

Ontological complexity can be understood through very careful research. If we know how all the parts and sub-units work and interact, we can understand the operation of the system in the big picture and ensure predictions and models and control it. The climate system is an example of an ontologically very complex system, the weather is almost chaotic, i.e. its instability, uncertainty and holism are considerable. Holism means a situation where everything affects everything in some way. We can only predict the weather for one or two days. After that, the uncertainty is so huge that prediction becomes impossible.

The socio-ecological system is very complex, as is the economy. However, both can be understood with the help of systems thinking. In systems thinking, we see how the components interact and how they affect each other. What exactly is complexity and what exactly is it caused by? In a complex system, the subunits of the system interact with each other in a nonlinear dynamic manner. In a complex system, there are many connections, dependencies and feedbacks, which can weaken or strengthen the system's phenomena. For example, in relation to the climate, as the climate warms, more water evaporates and because of this, more clouds are formed, white clouds reflect the sun's radiation into space and cool the earth. Gray and dark clouds, on the other hand, absorb the sun's heat. Another good example is the melting of permafrost in the Arctic region. This releases methane into the atmosphere, which catalyzes, i.e. accelerates climate change considerably. Spontaneous behavior also occurs in complex subunits. This is often very unpredictable.

We can divide complexity into four concepts: simple, complex, complex and chaotic. From simple to chaotic disorder, interactions and uncertainty increase. Simple problems are linear and easy to manage. There are not many factors that change or interact with each other. Uncertainty always goes hand in hand with complexity. There is so much holism in a chaotic system that we cannot predict much of anything. Uncertainty is present in many sustainability issues. Often we have huge information uncertainty and it makes it difficult to manage the system and make the right choices. We can control uncertainty by acquiring more information over time. This is why, for example, climate research needs to be done all the time. Science has discovered many new things that have a strong impact on the climate, for example, the University of Helsinki has studied black carbon, which causes the melting of glaciers in particular. Another example is the organic aerosols released into the air from trees, which contribute to the creation of clouds and rain and thereby cool the climate.

Most sustainability problems are so-called "wicked problems", which are really complex. Solutions often create new problems, for example the use of nuclear power to curb climate emissions is stupid, because polluting uranium mines and nuclear waste are a new serious problem caused by the use of nuclear power. The solution to serious problems often requires many people to change their thinking or major changes in the economy or society.

If we want to manage sustainability issues and solve problems, we need more information. Science is key here. According to the theory of Elinor Ostrom, the Nobel laureate in economics, we can only solve and manage the problems of sustainable development with actions and actions as complex as the system itself, which we want to manage, is complex. Ostrom wrote about complex governance systems with many levels to manage common resources such as common lands. Pstrom's theory, which he presents in his book Governing the Commons, is a combination of rules and laws, active subjects and institutions, and control. So we can manage complexity and uncertainty only with a complex management system with many sub-units and parts. Populist politicians may present simple solutions in style, climate change will be solved if we just plant trees and use nuclear power. These do not solve climate change in the first place. The solution to the climate crisis requires numerous different measures and comprehensive management. Climate change requires changes in the thinking and behavior of individual people, the economy, technology, institutions, as well as major societal changes at the national level (for example in legislation) and globally. In particular, it requires global thinking and cooperation and the contributions of science, trust in science and the removal of disinformation. Sustainability issues are not Gordian knots. The fight against climate change and loss of nature is being fought on many fronts.

Maintaining world peace is just as complicated. With globalization, there are more and more interacting components, variables and dependencies in the world. This leads to the fact that crises and conflicts arise even more easily, and they become global even more easily. If the countries and entities of the world would strive for consensus, unification and unity, we would achieve world peace. However, there are a large number of states in the world that only pursue their own interests and a multipolar world. This inevitably leads to different interests colliding and conflicts. A unipolar world, represented for example by the UN, and defined by cooperation and common rules, would secure world peace and prosperity globally.