Ecoblogi – A Blog by Daniel Elkama

The world is very complex and big global problems need complex answers. You cannot fix world’s problems like Alexander the Great of Macedonia cut the Gordian Knot with his sword. Populist politicians and sometimes even scientists, often show easy answers to really complex problems; Like climate change is solved by planting more trees or with nuclear energy. The truth is that we need to affect on society and fix ecosystem with many ways with interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches. We need big fundamental changes in our way of thinking and we need to change the whole social system including economical system. The most important thing is to change our way of thinking so that we would see the worth of nature and we would see the Earth as a holistic system. We need new concepts, new methods and new theory. Some decades ago not many people understood what was biodiversity or ecosystem services and even today there are many people who don’t understand these key concepts in sustainability. I truly believe that science and education are in key position in tackling climate change, biodiversity loss and other big global problems. That is why we need good science, science that is both objective and value based.

One of the greatest Greek philosophers, Socrates, was once asked: ”How are you so wise?” Socrates answered: ”Because I know that I know nothing.” A good scientist knows that his knowledge has limits and he is open minded and ready to change his approach and paradigm. A good scientist knows that he must always learn and research more. It is an interesting paradox that knowledge accumulates faster in the minds of those who see their ignorance. (Vitek 2008) Even the greatest theory is not the absolute truth. So called ”wishful thinking” and dogmatism can be really harmful. When a man looks the world through highly ideological and pejudiced lenses, he is actually blind. Neisser’s circle of perception leads easily to a situation in which our world view and prejudices lead our search of new knowledge. Ideologies thus easily make us blind to see the truth and the complexity. Philosophers like Jiddu Krishnamurti have debated about this a lot; it is important to widen our way of thinking. Often dogmatism related to religion, science or scientific discipllines, traditions and paradigms can prevent us to see how the reality is constructive and that there are many ways, approaches and perspectives to see things and reality. A good scientist cannot be narrow minded. Often we think that science and technology can solve environmental and sustainability problems, although the social-ecological system is very complex with so much uncertainty and interaction between things, with many actors and stakeholders and there are many ”wicked problems” that have no easy answer. (Vitek 2008)

Although most values seem to be relative and it is sometimes difficult to find absolute values, we can say that there are also many objective values: the language reflects the reality like mathematics does and so if we can argument logically that something is wrong or right, it is true. (Von Wright 1963) Some things cause harm by decreasing things we say are good like health, welfare or happiness, some increase these things we say are good. So science is highly value laden, especially sustainability science, because sustainability is about creating a better society and protecting what is precious and good to us, other sentinent species and ecosystems, like nature, biodiversity and cultural heritage. Nature protection is existential because our whole existence depends on  nature and its ecosystem services. There are many shared values in the world that every rational, healthy and sentinent human accepts. These values, goals and rules have been negociated in many conventions, conferences and institutions representing all humanity. So we can Agenda2030 and Declaration of Human Rights represents the general will of mankind. These are good goals that advance the good of every one. Science must advance good values. Otherwise it would be quite useless. Complexity theory actually supports this: it gives purposes and meanings to things, people and subjects. In mechanistic Newtonian-Cartesian world view there is no place for values, or complicated ethics. This kind of science leads to cruelty. (Heylighen et al 2006)

But we must know that in inductive thinking we always have a risk of misunderstanding things. We have inductive risk that we may do wrong decisions. Like many scientist trust nuclear power and GMO in a fundamentalistic way. They think that these are the ultimate solutions to climate crisis and global food crisis althought they are not and they bring more new problems with them like problems related to uranium mining, nuclear waste and GMO:s killing bees because of changes in proteins. Technocratic view is way too optimistic and it can lead to huge mistakes. We have to weight the risk that is in inductive thinking. It is also a big problem and mistake if we do nothing. We need to tolerate some uncertainty. Actually we always have to make choice and that is why we always need normative ethics. (Heylighen et al 2006) IPCC has told us that we have 10 years to make green transition to sustainable zero-carbon energy system, otherwise the damage to ecosystems and societies is enormous. If we do nothing, the time is running out. What is important is that we see that we cannot count on just technological solutions like renewable energy nor nature based solutions like planting trees. Climate change is much more complex system, we need big changes in way of thinking, education, values, economy etc. Otherwise just renewable energy and planting trees are useless eg. if the global population and the consumption of energy and natural resources keep on growing. There may be some path dependencies but the past does not define our future and destiny. We have the chance to change. If society was a ship, it would be difficult to change the course but not impossible. It demands the will of the crew. So the society changes if enough people want that and change their behaviour and way of thinking.

A good scientist is humble, curious and open minded. These are virtues represented by great philosophers of Ancient Greece. The Enlightenment and boom of modern scientific knowledge started in Italy, France, Britain and the Netherlands where the atmosphere was free, liberal and science was not dictated by religion. Dogmatism, religion and traditions can prevent human progress and advance of sciences. (Vitek 2008) Many great scientists like Giordano Bruno were burnt because of their thoughts that shook the society and people’s worldview. The church has controlled people’s minds for centuries, we can call this ’mental slavery’. Especially Descartes’ thoughts lead to a world view in the West in which  man was seen superior to other species and the nature was seen as a machine. (Vitek 2008) Finally this lead even to dystopies like Nazi Germany and Soviet Union who thought to be lead by science and who saw society as a machine. Science is based on curiosity, open mindness, doubt and it is very charcteristic to science that it always changes and new knowledge replaces old. For example Darwin understood some mechanisms on how evolution works, but in the 50s scientists found DNA and understood how important it is and that evolution is changes in genes and their amounts in populations. Since that we have learnt a lot about genes and their functions. New theories replace olders and sometimes even the foundations of science change like when Einstein represented his theory on relativity.

When a problem is simple, it has few components and its interactions are linear. In this case, it is easy to find a solution to the problem. However, environmental and sustainability issues are very rarely simple and linear. The socio-ecological system is very complex, it has numerous variables and interactions. For example, nature loss and climate change are affected by a huge number of different factors, and simple measures cannot be proposed as a solution, as, for example, populist politicians do. Natural ecosystems and also society are very complex, full of various relationships and interactions: in nature and society, nothing is isolated and everything affects everything at least in some way. Therefore, understanding their operation and solving problems requires systems thinking. Especially Descartes and Newton introduced thoughts about deterministic and linear Cosmos in which everything was under ’God’s rule’ or simple rules of nature. But about hundred years ago we saw the rise of quatum mechanics that shook our world view. (Heylighen et al 2006) Quantum mechanics showed that the world is actually not deterministic but very complex, sometimes even chaotic.

There are two types of complexity: ontological and epistemological complexity. Ontological means many sub-units dependencies and variables and the dynamic interactions between them. Epistemological means that sometimes understanding the system is difficult or even impossible. Epistemological complexity can be a really bad thing in managing sustainability issues. Then the uncertainty is so strong that we cannot understand the system and its operation properly, and we cannot find a solution to the problems. Especially when the system is impossible to understand, we are completely blind. In that case acting can be very dangerous. For example, predicting the weather is sometimes very difficult, and predicting it a week from now is almost completely impossible. When a sustainability problem is like this the results can be very destructive when we act. The good news is that most complex systems can be understood through careful research. When we know the laws of society and nature thoroughly, we can solve very complex problems.

Ontological complexity can be understood through very careful research. If we know how all the parts and sub-units work and interact, we can understand the operation of the system in the big picture and ensure predictions and models and control it. The climate system is an example of an ontologically very complex system, the weather is almost chaotic, i.e. its instability, uncertainty and holism are considerable. Holism means a situation where everything affects everything in some way. We can only predict the weather for one or two days. After that, the uncertainty is so huge that prediction becomes impossible.

The world is getting more complex, especially because of modern technology and globalization. (Heylighen et al 2006). We live in a ’global village’. The socio-ecological system is very complex, as is the economy. However, both can be understood with the help of systems thinking. In systems thinking, we see how the components interact and how they affect each other. System theory was first introduced by eg. Smuts in the 20s. He represented the concept of holism which he said was: ”the whole is more than its parts”. Nowadays we call that the whole is emergent, that something new, some new properties arise from combining parts or subunits. (Heylighen et al 2006) We can see this at physical level when we combine carbon and oxygen atoms to a CO2 molecule that has totally new properties than only C or O. The system has environment, boundaries and identity and it is divided into many subunits that interact.

 What exactly is complexity and what exactly is it caused by? In a complex system, the subunits of the system interact with each other in a nonlinear dynamic manner. In a complex system, there are many connections, dependencies and feedbacks, which can weaken or strengthen the system’s phenomena. These inputs and outputs form a complex network. (Heylighen et al 2006)

That causes uncertainty, especially when there is spontanuos behaviour. In physical level we see that the atoms move in unpredictable way that we call Brownian movement. That is caused by many parts going different directions and colliding. In complex networks we must understand interactions between things. Eg. in climate change there are many feedbacks. For example, in relation to the climate, as the climate warms, more water evaporates and because of this, more clouds are formed, white clouds reflect the sun’s radiation into space and cool the earth. Gray and dark clouds, on the other hand, absorb the sun’s heat. Another good example is the melting of permafrost in the Arctic region. This releases methane into the atmosphere, which catalyzes, i.e. accelerates climate change considerably. Some feedbacks are not researched very much. We don’t know what will happen if the methane ice on sea bed melts. Possibly it can be catastrophic like in Permi-Triassic Extinction Event some two hunded million years ago.  Spontaneous behavior also occurs in complex system in its many subunits. This is often very unpredictable and non-deterministic and we can see sometimes development and its results that are very unpredictable and odd.

We can divide complexity into four concepts: simple, complicated, complex and chaotic. From simple to chaotic disorder, interactions and uncertainty increase. Simple problems are linear and easy to manage. There are not many factors that change or interact with each other. In Newtonian physics there are simple laws but actually Einstein represented these laws are much more complicated. Uncertainty always goes hand in hand with complexity. (Heylighen et al 2006) There is so much holism in a chaotic system that we cannot predict much of anything. The development in a holistic system can go in any direction. Uncertainty is present in many sustainability issues.  Often we have huge information uncertainty and it makes it difficult to manage the system and make the right choices. We can control and manage uncertainty by acquiring more information over time. This is why, for example, climate research needs to be done all the time. Science has discovered many new things that have a strong impact on the climate, for example, the University of Helsinki has studied black carbon, which causes the melting of glaciers in particular. Another example is the organic aerosols released into the air from trees, which contribute to the creation of clouds and rain and thereby cool the climate.

Most big global sustainability problems are so-called ”wicked problems”, which are really complex. Solving this kind of problems is not like healing a sickness with specific medicine. Solutions also often create new problems, for example the use of nuclear power to stop climate emissions is not wise, because polluting uranium mines and nuclear waste are a new serious problem caused by the use of nuclear power. The solution to serious problems often requires many people to change their thinking or major changes in the economy and society.

If we want to manage sustainability issues and solve problems, we need more information. Science is key here. According to the theory of Elinor Ostrom, the Nobel laureate in economics, we can only solve and manage the problems of sustainable development with actions as complex as the system itself, which we want to manage. Ostrom wrote about complex governance systems with many levels and rules to manage common resources such as common lands. Ostrom’s theory, which he presents in his book Governing the Commons, is a combination of rules and laws, active subjects and institutions, and control. So we can manage complexity and uncertainty only with a complex management system with many sub-units and parts. Populist politicians may present simple solutions in style, climate change will be solved if we just plant trees and use nuclear power. These do not solve climate change in the first place. The solution to the climate crisis requires numerous different measures and comprehensive management. Climate change requires changes in the thinking and behavior of individual people, the economy, technology, institutions, as well as major societal changes at the national level (for example in legislation) and globally. In particular, it requires global thinking and cooperation and the contributions of science, trust in science and the removal of disinformation. Sustainability issues are not Gordian knots. The fight against climate change and loss of nature is being fought on many fronts. It is important that people think globally, that they see the Earth and the society as complex systems and they appreciate nature and see our dependence from it, that people see the value of ecosystem services and biodiversity and the Earth as a system that has limits. Also people should see the economy with different purposes than gaining more wealth to oneself and that is lead by blind invisible hand. Instead should we see the economy as a way to share and make cooperation to create a better and happier world.

Maintaining world peace is just as complicated. With globalization, there are more and more interacting components, variables and dependencies in the world. This leads to the fact that crises and conflicts arise even more easily, and they become global even more easily. If the countries and entities of the world would strive for consensus, unification, cooperation and unity, we would achieve world peace. However, there are a large number of states in the world that only pursue their own interests and a multipolar world. This inevitably leads to different interests colliding and conflicts. A unipolar world, represented for example by the UN, and defined by cooperation and common rules, would secure world peace and prosperity globally. System thinking and understanding of complexity are existential things, without these we would be going towards global catastrophe. With system thinking we can solve problems that otherwise would lead to destruction of mankind and the Earth.

 

Sources:

Francis Heylighen, Paul Cilliers, Carlos Gershenson 2006. Complexity and Philosophy. Cornell University.

Bill Vitek 2008. The virtues of ignorance: Complexity, sustainability, and the limits of knowledge. University Press of Kentucky.

Georg Henrik Von Wright 1963. The Varities of Goodness. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd