Ecoblogi – A Blog by Daniel Elkama

Very disturbing news: North Atlantic thermal anomalies (large deviations in the average temperature) and anomalies in the global average temperature point to something very dark: climate change is escalating and has leapfrogged to a whole new level. We have apparently already reached 2 degrees of warming, that is, the average temperature of the earth has risen from 15 degrees to 17 degrees as a result of human activity. During the time of the dinosaurs, the average temperature of the earth was much higher, about 30 degrees, and because of this, extreme weather phenomena were also much more frequent and stronger than today. The world was a very dangerous place back then. We're getting back to that time. I personally predict that the average temperature of the earth will rise to 19-20 degrees.

In this statistic of the Earth's daily average temperature, we see a very amazing and serious anomaly. The year 2023 clearly stands out. We have moved up the ladder and are entering a new era of major disasters. We will face very serious environmental hazards and extreme weather phenomena. This new normal means severe destruction, economic losses in the billions and death. In the coming decades, the Earth will be a very different place to what we are used to. It will also look completely different. Now is the last chance to wake up and switch to renewable energy and an ecological lifestyle. The number of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, forest fires, storms and heat waves has even doubled in recent decades. The reason is simply that more energy enters the system. When more energy enters the climate system, stronger low pressures, worse heat, etc. are created. Weather phenomena require energy, and when more energy comes, stronger weather phenomena and more occur. The occurrence of weather phenomena follows a normal distribution. When the Earth's average temperature rises, the normal distribution of weather shifts on the axis towards hotter weather. This is how the share of extreme weather phenomena increases. Picture below.

The terrible forest fires in the Mediterranean are one example of this. Almost everywhere in the world there are currently huge forest and wildfires that have killed hundreds of people and led to the evacuation of tens of thousands. We have lost a huge amount of valuable nature in terms of biodiversity. For example, the Mediterranean region belongs to the so-called to biodiversity hot spot areas, where there is an enormously high and valuable natural diversity. Now, a large part of these beautiful natural sites in the Mediterranean is being destroyed. On the island of Rhodes, for example, about a fifth of the forests have burned during this summer. There are rare forest fires at the same time all around the Mediterranean. This is unprecedented. I call the area the Mediterranean ring of fire. There is a huge water shortage in the region in many places. In fact, the drought is so severe in Spain, for example, that it has been predicted that the Sahara desert will spread there across the Strait of Gibraltar.

Water shortages are very serious in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey, but Europe as a whole also has water shortages. Climate change not only dries and roasts the air, igniting forest fires, it also evaporates groundwater and water from rivers and lakes. Rivers always need a reservoir from which the water flows steadily. This storage can be mainly a lake or a glacier. Almost all of Asia's major rivers, such as the Indus, the Ganges, the Mekong, the Yangtze and the Yellow River, originate from the Himalayas and nearby mountains. About 3.5 billion people get their drinking water and irrigation water from these rivers. If the Himalayan glaciers melt, it could cause millions of people to die and large areas to become uninhabitable. Himalayan glaciers have been found to be melting at a rapid rate. Pakistan had huge floods in 2022 due to rains and melting glaciers. A third of the country's surface area was covered in flood water.

This satellite image shows how Pakistan is covered under water. A country with a population of 250 million. In the Horn of Africa, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Eritrea, there has been almost no rain at all in recent years. Millions suffer from famine and water shortages. The drought in the area is known to be caused by climate change. Most of the population of these countries are completely dependent on UN food aid. There are areas in Somalia where more than 50-60% of people suffer from famine and lack of drinking water.

Let's move on to the Atlantic. The thermal anomalies in the North Atlantic have also jumped to a whole new level this year. I find it completely out of the ordinary: the statistics show that the sea has warmed suddenly and strongly. This new normal means stronger storms and hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Hurricanes form in the area around the equator, where the sea water is 26.5 degrees and where the Coriolis force prevails. There are no hurricanes in the thousand kilometer zone at the Equator because the Coriolis force does not exist there. Because the sea water is warming, the sea water temperature rises to 26.5 degrees in an even larger area. The hurricane zone thus expands far to the north. I predict that hurricanes will occur quite often in New York in the future. Until now they have been very rare there. Hurricane season is now upon us. Hurricanes also become violent because they get their power from the sea. The more heat there is in the sea, the stronger the low pressure. The stronger the low pressure, the stronger the winds and rains.

As we see, it is not an exaggeration to talk about a climate crisis or emergency. There is no going back to the old normal. We have to adapt to the new situation. The sad thing is that we in the West are responsible for about 90% of the greenhouse emissions in history and those who are not to blame, the inhabitants of the Global South, will suffer the most. The average annual carbon footprint of an American is 20 tons, and that of most Africans is 0.2 tons. That is, the carbon footprint of an American is 100 times larger. The only way to save our planet is to completely switch to clean energy, such as wind and solar power and hydrogen technology, electrify and use hydrogen technology in transport, plant trees, restore forests and protect them from logging and nature loss, switch to vegetable protein in the diet, ecological living and live a comprehensive ecological life. Environmental problems are mainly caused by people consuming too much and unethically. Environmental problems mostly arise from people taking something out of nature, such as wood and minerals (mines, logging) or people putting something into nature that doesn't belong there (pollution, plastic, waste). Man messes up the cycles of matter and energy. We can still wake up and switch to an ecological lifestyle. Nature will forgive us at some point if we stop destroying it. Nature and biodiversity support the entire human society. We are completely dependent on it and its ecosystem services. The greater the biodiversity, the better the ecosystem services. When we protect nature, we also protect ourselves and our neighbors. All nature also has an independent value as subjects of their own life. The Paris Climate Agreement 2015 and the Montreal Biodiversity Agreement 2022 have been extremely important steps towards a better world.

Daniel Elkama, environmental expert