The climate is an extremely complex physical system in which numerous components influence each other. The Earth’s atmosphere, rock cycle, hydrosphere, biosphere and cryosphere, i.e. glaciers, and the technosphere created by man interact with each other in many ways. The economy, society and the human mind affect the climate. This complex system has numerous interactions, loops and feedbacks of different types and volumes. For example, a warming climate in the Arctic region melts permafrost and releases methane, which in turn accelerates global warming further. Clouds cool the climate. As glaciers melt, their albedo, or reflectivity, disappears and the land and air warm further. Particles and aerosols released from trees cool the climate. So trees do not only act as carbon sinks… In the climate, many things depend strongly on some other factor and even a small change or the disappearance of something can cause great destruction.
Chaos is the most extreme state of complexity, where intricacy, randomness, uncertainty and unpredictability are enormous. Systems are divided into simple, complicated, complex and chaotic systems based on the extent of chaos. The climate is not chaotic. It has many balancing and stability-maintaining mechanisms. The climate system has developed as it is as a result of billions of years of evolution. The biosphere maintains the climate suitable and favorable for itself. This way, for example, the amount of oxygen and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere remains optimal for life. The problem is humans, who overconsume, burn carbon that has been diverted from the natural cycle and destroy carbon sinks, i.e., forests in practice.
The climate is not chaotic, but it is very complex and holism and chaos are very high in it. Even a small change in a sensitive system can put it in an unbalanced, unpredictable or damaging state. Stopping climate change is a so-called “wicked problem”. This means that solutions are often difficult to find or implement. Systems thinking is the key. When we understand how the climate and socio-ecological systems work, we can find effective solutions. Solutions are not impossible Gordian knots, but are found through systematic scientific analysis and research. We need to understand which components and issues affect the climate system and how, and how they interact with each other.
Climate change will not be defeated with simple solutions. Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom argued that solutions to complex problems must be as complex as the problem itself. So, numerous climate actions are needed, such as renewable energy, electric transport, reducing consumption, a new economic system, new infrastructure, plant protein production, tree planting, ecosystem protection, changing attitudes, education, scientific development… to name just a few. Above all, we need to understand the system as a whole and find the most effective means. Stopping climate change requires a change in our entire way of thinking and worldview. In addition to reducing emissions, adapting to climate change is essential, how we will cope with a changed climate. Devastating weather extremes and hazards, such as floods, heat waves and forest fires, are the biggest problem that we as humanity have to face due to climate change. The greatest tragedy for nature is the loss of ecosystems and species.
When talking about climate change, the chaos theory term “tipping point” often comes up. It is a kind of point or threshold of system change, after which there is no return to the previous state, at least for thousands of years. We are now at that point in many cases. In 2025, it was announced that coral reefs, among others, will be permanently destroyed as a result of ocean warming (the ocean absorbs some of the excess heat from the climate) and acidification caused by carbon dioxide. This is one of the climate tipping points. If the coral reefs of disappear, it may be impossible to get them back. Maybe we can preserve some of the corals in large aquariums for the future, like the seeds are stored in the “doomsday vault” of Svalbard? A couple of years ago, I was in Lapland, in a beautiful palsa bog. Palsa are mounds of bog with an ice core. A unique ecosystem. Many of the palsa had already melted and collapsed. It is estimated that in 5 years, there will no longer be any palsa bogs like before.
Other significant tipping points include The weakening of the Gulf Stream, the loss of the Amazon rainforest and the melting of the Greenland ice sheets. At their worst, we will face these in the coming decades. The melting of the ice sheets is a process that takes centuries, but other permanent changes can come amazingly quickly. Although the Greenland ice sheets are already melting at an alarming rate. When you try to restart a person’s heart during a heart attack with a defibrillator, at some point you will reach a point where you can no longer do it. Nature has created the Amazon rainforest and coral reefs, for example, over millions of years. Humans can destroy them irreversibly in a few decades. This is truly sad and gloomy.
The good news is that we can still prevent many devastating tipping points from being crossed. Anything we can save is a victory. The world is not doomed. It is certain that we will see very unpleasant and sad things: climate change will kill millions, hundreds of millions will become refugees, many species will disappear and numerous ecosystems will be destroyed. However, we can still save most of nature. Every saved person, species or ecosystem is a victory and valuable, and I really want to emphasize that there is still hope to save most of our beautiful nature. This requires active and quick action and changing our entire social system. Each of us can play a role. The Earth will change a lot, but a lot of good and beautiful things can be saved. We are writing the script for the future. We are creating the future.
Daniel Elkama